Brexit Means Brexit

I feel like i understand the gears and levers of Brexit, but the thing as a whole is baffling.  Like watching a drunk friend set themselves on fire.

I do think there are several key points to remember, and the media has been, as a whole, abysmal at covering the whole thing.  They use cute satirical phrases instead of explaining real issues, they completely ignore mechanisms and reasons and (even The Guardian!) hype conflict and confusion.

KEY ROOT CAUSES
1. Independence
Independence is emotionally so hard to oppose, but intellectually impossible to justify.  We saw this in the Scottish referendum; hell, we see it in Eastern Washington all the time.  It FEELS so right. But it's really not.  Community is strong.  Diversity is healthy.  But Independence SOUNDS so good.

2. Britain still remembers the Empire.
This couldn't happen in any other country.  There is a memory of a time when things JUST WORKED GREAT for the UK -- mind you they starved India and enslaved Africa to make things work on that tiny island, but there is a strong cultural memory (especially in the media, left center and right) of things working really well.  They are oblivious to the fact that this is a memory, but they are CONVINCED that things will just work for them if they leave. Without that memory of power, this doesn't happen.

3. Superpower
Britain thinks they have more power internationally than they actually do, due to centuries of white supremacy.  This is different than #2, it's more intellectual conclusion and less emotional reaction.  They really really believe deep down that they are a superpower, one of the 3 or 4 most important nations on the planet.  Every thought and decision is based on that core 'truth'.   It's wrong.  Without that belief that the world will come begging at their doorstep, this doesn't happen.

4. Anglo-Saxon Liberty
This is a whole interesting, disturbing concept in itself, that i should discuss further sometime, but going back to the Germanic tribes interactions with the Roman Empire there is a long history of a fanaticism for liberty and fights over personal vs communal liberty.   The Germans hated the Romans because they had an Emperor and the Germans had no kings.  British kings have always been 'below the law' citizens who had to obey laws, while French and other kings were 'above the law', their word was god.  There is a whole series of conflicts, wars and political conflicts which can be seen as a single ongoing conflict around liberty, including 1066, Empress Matlida, Edward III, Wars of Roses, Henry VIII, Cromwell... The US Revolution, US Civil War can even be included.  This is surely part of that universe.  The British KNOW that union is good for them, but they bristle, they don't like it because of a cultural (although poorly articulated) passion for 'liberty'.

5. Fear of brown people.
Sadly this is a big part of the wedge used to force people to a position on this issue.  And that's what happened, what that massive ignoramus Cameron unwittingly did, he FORCED Brits to take sides on an issue steeped in racism.  You really don't want to make people take sides like that.

6. Power struggles.
I really like the parliamentary system -- where there are many voices compromising, multiple parties with nuanced political ideas working together with the currency of percentage of the vote (instead of money).  I like the idea that a poor leader can be replaced by their own party without the party losing power. I like the idea that the leader is selected by party membership rather than by corporate faux election 'primarys'.  But this great system has failed terribly here.  Every decision maker, Johnson, Mogg, even Corbyn, possibly even May, has been making decisions about how to behave (daily!) in this crisis based entirely on how it will effect their ability to be PM.  It's sick.   In fact, i'm pretty sure a dozen or so 'contenders' have taken the attitude of letting May handle this impossible task before taking over as PM themselves.  No one wanted this shit bomb, let the woman sort it out.  Without that crazy power struggle, this is solved 2 years ago.

7. Split parties
Partially because of first-past-the-post, England (and i do mean only one of the four countries in the UK) has always leaned toward a damaging and oligarchic two party 'big tent' system like the USA; with Cameron's poorly thought out electoral 'reforms' that has gotten even worse.  Instead of creating additional parties, the 'big tents' have tried to embrace rivals to create a majority in a general election.  Neither party is unified.  So in addition to the competition and maneuvering of #5, you have factions in each party with starkly different ideologies.  The parties themselves can't get along or even agree internally and that negates a main benefit of a parliamentary system: the ability to make and execute decisions.  Without that infighting, this is solved 2 years ago.

8. Misogyny
I don't agree with May's politics. Also, i tend to dislike politicians whose desire for office exceeds ideology and/or honorable behavior.  But i actually think she's done an admirable job of 'can't we all get along'.  And it almost worked.  There is no way a man would be treated like she's been treated -- no possible way.  Few men could've done even as well as she has with this radioactive hot potato (handed to her by a less competent man), but can you imagine if the buffoonish ignoramuses Cameron or Johnson were PM during this?  They never would've been treated with the disdain that MPs, media and even her own cabinet ministers have treated this female PM.  No way.  Without that sexism, this is solved 2 years ago.

8. Euro
The EU was founded on the single basic principle of preventing war.  In the 250 years before 1952 France had attacked Germany 3 times, Germany attacked France twice and France and Spain had exploded into warfare twice all causing Europe-wide wars.  In the century before THAT religious wars engulfed the continent 3 times.  The EU was created to prevent that ever happening again, and all across the continent people know that, and that's why they love it so much, why support is so unbelievably high, especially in France, Germany and Benelux (like 90%).  The EU means peace and getting along with neighbors.  Then came a big corporation, BMW, like a drunk frat boy crashing the party.  They wanted a market the size of the US with no currency fluctuations so they could compete with Caterpillar.  They pushed the starkly anti-EU idea of a single currency.  That changed everything.  The downside of the EU was always a fear of a U.S.E., a FEDERATION like the U.S.A. rather than a CONfederation of independent states.  The Euro upended the balanced power in the confederation and in addition it brought in nutty right wing 'austerity' and powerful vs weak 'members'.  That's really what this is all about.  Without the Euro, this doesn't happen.

9. Special relationship
Since 1945 the UK has not really been independent, but has, in fact, been a de facto kind of 51st state of the US.  They have to do what the US says -- just ask Tony Blair about Iraq!  This has been a key part of the UKs schizoid relationship with the EU.  The US liked having a partial say in EU matters, the UK liked having a foot on either side of the fence.  Russia and China hated it.  My big fear 5 years ago, and it seems to be coming true, is an unaffiliated England with London being fought over by the US, EU, Russia & China like a modern day Vietnam.  Without the connection to the US, the UK is fully in the EU and not thinking of leaving at all.


So these root causes combined to make a chaotic environment and along came a rock-stupid male billionaire Oxford schoolboy who thought he could make himself more powerful by brilliantly leveraging all these issues into a major victory for his white self.  He failed and truly deserves what is coming, which is a place in history as one of the stupidest villains of all time.

In a Jessie Ventura moment, the UK (barely) voted to leave, and everyone was shocked, from Cameron down to most of the leave voters who thought it was a joke.  That leaves three major issues.  Introduction done, this is my take on Brexit:


I. Divorce
Once the UK decided to leave, they had to negotiate a divorce and build new relationships.  The EU wanted to stay together and was willing to work on it. All the accounts needed to be separated, new responsibilities delegated that the partner used to do.  New trading relationships negotiated with other countries and for that matter with the EU too.  Plans for what to do with the kids and the house and the bank account and the dog.  Who pays who what.

May's first big mistake was immediately invoking article 50, starting the departure process before agreeing on a plan.  This was like calling the guests into dinner before doing the cooking, or even planning the menu.  The UK as a whole had to decide what to ask for in the divorce.  They had to agree on what to ask for -- and now we are 3 years later and they still haven't agreed on WHAT TO ASK FOR to START the negotiations.  And oh by they way, you're the one leaving, you don't get to ask for ANYTHING.  It's stunningly arrogant to think that they can request BENEFITS for leaving -- but they haven't even asked yet because they can't agree among themselves! 

Like the great white Oxbridge power mad scum that they are, they assume they can set the rules.  They can't.  The rules are set.  The EU has been rolling it's eyes so hard the magnetic field of the earth is changing!  Even if the EU COULD negotiate, they can't let other countries think that it is EASY to leave, so they have to take a hard line, while hoping the UK comes to it's senses and just stays.

II. Ireland
May's second mistake was calling a general election.  Because she had an outright Tory majority, and assuming she could control her party, and assuming the stupid white men would listen to a woman, she could come up with a plan for this almost impossible divorce, get it through parliament and go to the EU for them to say No to it.  But she lost seats in the election and lost her majority, so she had to take on a coalition partner.  Wow, a grand coalition for a major national crisis!  Again!  That's a great idea!  Labour and Tory working side by side against a difficult problem for a better Britain!!!  No.  She chose the extreme rightwing Northern Ireland Unionist party and now they get to veto every decision.  And that they have.

The problem of course is that for 30 years they had open warfare on the border between the UK and the Republic in Ireland. Well, 300 years, but 1970s to 1990s they had shootings and bombings and assassinations and all out warfare in a modern white country.  With a lot of help that was solved by Bill Clinton in 2000.  And they found someone to guarantee the peace.  That was The EU.  And really the main thing that did it, was that with both countries in the EU, the border just didn't matter anymore.  There IS NO BORDER.  So they've had peace for a generation.  Peace is a nice thing for normal people, but politicians don't much like it.

Some crazy white folks can pretend that the UK dropping out of the worlds largest trading block with NO trade agreements, no laws or regulations, no flights in or out, no shipping, no medicine would be just fine.  It probably WOULD be fine for the handful of rich white lunatics supporting that insane idea.  But even they can't claim Ireland would be fine: war would return overnight.  And the EU, to their credit, is standing up for Ireland.

III. special treatment
If the UK leaves the EU on April 12th (or later if they are given another extension) and if the EU survives (which is certainly a question, but is very likely) then the UK will want back in sometime in the next 30 years.  And this time they will not get all the special treatment -- they won't be able to keep their own currency, their own immigration rules and everything else. 

How much support is there for staying?
 
Well, LEAVE won by 1.8% with a vote that skewed above aged 65.  More than 1.8% of the leave voters have died in 3 years.  Also the lies of the white guys have been exposed. Standard logic suggests that right now, on a 2nd referendum with just 2 options (LEAVE/STAY), stay would win big.  But standard logic can't apply here, and the fact is, the LEAVE camp want a 2nd ref almost as badly as as REMAIN do -- obviously they think they can win.

Anyway, a second ref is not going to happen.  What might happen is  a general election which would be insane (but look up Brexit in a dictionary!  It's all insane.)  There's no real reason to believe Labour could win outright and frankly i think the Torys would probably win another minority government.

What's the mechanism for never leaving at all?
 
That's easy.  In fact, it's the only thing that is.

May announces she's going to cancel their request to leave (the invoking of article 50 of the EU charter).  MPs vote yes.  She hops over to Brussels, hands the paper to Donald Tusk, he hugs her and says, "Wanna watch the footie?"